Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II

Summary of Model Linkages and Integration for K2

An important objective of the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II (K2) project is to increase the adaptive capacity of forest management with respects to climate change.  To do so, the forestry practitioners will collaborate with forest modelers to quantify and validate projected ecological and management sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate change identified in the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy I (K1) for the Kamloops Timber Supply Area (TSA).  This will be achieved through the linkage of several models (Figure 1) in order to test assumptions and further examine sensitivities and implications from proposed management actions by exploring a) forest regeneration and growth dynamics and b) alternative management strategies as they unfold across the landscape over time.

Figure 1. General linkages between the models to be used in K2.  Click on image for a larger view.

K2 utilizes five linked forest models to quantify ecological sensitivities and implications from proposed management actions under climate change by exploring a) forest regeneration and growth dynamics and b) alternative management strategies as they unfold across the landscape over time, considering natural disturbance in the face of climate change.  The modelling suite includes:

1. TACA – The Tree & Climate Assessment Tool for modeling tree species response to climate change during regeneration.
2. FORWADY  – The Forest Water Dynamics Model for simulating forest stand hydrology and its impacts on stand development and regeneration.
3. FORECAST-Climate Model – An updated version of FORECAST to model forest stand growth & ecosystem dynamics with a changing climate (by integrating FORWADY within it).
4. FPS (formerly known as Atlas) – a spatially explicit forest estate simulation model, which will allow for incorporation of natural and operational landscape level processes and considerations over time.
5. DYNA-PLAN – a landscape-level model designed to project forest harvesting, growth, and natural disturbances in order to predict impacts from climate change on timber supply, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, etc.

TACA linked with FORWADY addresses the successful establishment and regeneration of various tree species within local ecosystems under a changing climate, while FORECAST addresses ecological dynamics, stand growth and mortality over time.  FPS is concerned with landscape-level structures, ecological dynamics and management activities over time.  FORWADY helps TACA determine if regeneration is successful, and subsequently imposes evaporative and transpirational water budgets upon stands within FORECAST.   In TACA, environmental conditions are imposed upon a stand of tree species resulting in a cohort of seedlings that “survive” and become established, based on species specific thresholds incorporated into the model.  The TACA model provides output regarding establishment probability for various tree species that is fed into the FORECAST climate model for suitable disturbed stand units.


FORECAST uses this information to “grow” new stands, as well as moving existing stands along developmental trajectories.  Stand growth in the face of climatic stress is calibrated through dendrochronological analyses for a few key species, providing a greater level of confidence. This information is combined with stand/level information describing rates of decomposition, nutrient cycling, and other ecosystem properties to simulate forest growth under a wide range of management and climatic conditions.


Using FPS, we can then identify preferred management strategies for a number of indicators of forest management by accumulating TACA and FORECAST information and providing a spatial landscape context within the Case study area, building in landscape processes such as harvesting and natural disturbance

DYNA-PLAN selects harvest timing and treatment regimes for each stand over time that will best meet user defined objectives. The way in which natural disturbances are implemented in this model is similar to real world processes: as disturbances occur on the landbase, future plans are constantly being changed to react to the changed state of the landscape.

This page has the following sub pages.

• 1. TACA
• 2. ForWaDy
• 3. FORECAST
• 4. FPS
• 5. DYNA-PLAN