Held at the Office of the Ministry of Environment in Kamloops on Tuesday June 7, 2011
1. Refresher on the outcomes of the K2 June 2010 Working Group workshop:
- Identified forest management goals under climate change in the Kamloops TSA
- Identified questions about climate impacts and management implications
- The forest management/climate change scenarios modeled
The questions, input and feedback provided by the clients in June have facilitated the development of climate-management scenarios as well as indicators and targets relevant for the Kamloops TSA that we are tracking in the modeling process. At the upcoming workshop, we look forward to:
2. Presentation of preliminary results of the K2 work, namely:
- A summary of plausible future climate scenarios for the Kamloops TSA case study area
- Examples of forest regeneration under the various climate scenarios in the case study area
- Examples of forest stand development under various climate-management scenarios in the case study area
Relevant Documents
K2 BAU Regeneration Strategy & Stand Units - This summary document describes the business-as-usual (BAU) regeneration strategy in the Kamloops TSA for the case study area and the resultant stand units established. This is the starting point for all of the modeling.
K2 Initial Modeling Indicators for BAU - This document describes the indicators used for the K2 project based on the four broad management goals and associated modeling questions that emerged through discussions with project clients in Kamloops during the Working Groups session.
Presentations
The following presentations were given at this meeting and are available for download:
Introduction - a brief overview of the K2 project goals, relationship to K1, case study area, modeling objectives & questions, and the modeling approach.
Climate Scenarios – an overview of the GCMs and emissions scenarios selected.
TACA Model & Stand Units – overview of the Tree & Climate Assessment tool model (TACA) that projects regeneration success under BAU and various climate change scenarios, a snapshot of some interpreted results is provided. Presentation also describes how natural and artificial regeneration is addressed in the model suite, and how stand units were selected for modeling.
Climate Scenarios & Downscaling – this provides a description of the projected climate scenarios for the GCM/emission scenario combinations used in K2. Included is a more detailed description of the downscaling approach with an example, the core stand units used in the modeling, and the baseline climate regimes for each ecological group.
FORECAST Climate Model - this presentation gives a glimpse into how the FORECAST Climate model works with a detailed example of stand-level outputs, 2 examples of growth and water stress model simulations, and a description on how mortality thresholds in the modeling might be identified.
Insects & Disease – gives a description of the approach for determining plausible mortality from insects and disease for use in the modeling.
FPS & DYNAPLAN/Conclusion – a description of the landscape-level models, the final project outputs, and a timeline moving forward.
ALL PRESENTATIONS – All of the above.
