Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II

Validating Impacts, Exploring Vulnerabilities, and Developing Robust Adaptive Strategies

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K2 Research Team

Harry Nelson of the University of British Columbia (UBC) leads K2 project coordination at UBC as well as the socioeconomic aspects of the project.  His expertise contributes to model output interpretation and the assessment of economic vulnerabilities and tradeoffs with respect to Kamloops Future Forest Strategy outcomes. Harry will also contribute to the policy analysis of different options, identifying what might be required to support different management actions (including the identification of any policy barriers). Harry can be reached at: hnelson @forestry .ubc .ca

Ken Zielke (left photo) and Bryce Bancroft of Symmetree Consulting Group will manage the knowledge exchange and ongoing flow and coordination of the project with the modelers, different experts, clients and other interested parties.

As co-authors of the 2009 Kamloops Future Forest Strategy, combined with their past experience in the Kamloops TSA, Ken and Bryce will help focus the team on key vulnerabilities and modeling questions, and facilitate discussions with clients. Their experience with complex forest management problems involving a broad range of forest management values and their general experience with strategic planning projects position them well to help identify, synthesize and integrate emerging knowledge and trends.
Ken can be reached at: kzielke @telus .net Bryce can be reached at: BryceB @telus .net

Dr. Clive Welham will focus on development of the conceptual framework underlying the model linkages that form the basis of the meta-modeling approach employed in the project. Dr. Welham will also assist in the application of the stand-level model, FORECAST-climate, and the ForWaDy water balance model.  He can be reached at: clive.welham @ubc .ca


Cindy Pearce, Rural Climate Change Adaptation Facilitator, Mountain Labyrinths Inc. Revelstoke, BC – For over 20 years Cindy has bridged the disciplines of natural resource management and rural community development with project for government and industry clients. Since 2006 climate change has been a primary focus of her work. She is a member of a group exploring climate change adaptation for rural forest based communities across Canada, and an advisor to the Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative for the Columbia Basin Trust. She is responsible for the community adaptation portion of the project.  Cindy can be reached at cindypearce @telus .net.


Dr. Brad Seely will be responsible for conducting for evaluating stand-level climate change scenarios through the application of the ForWaDy and FORECAST Climate models.  He will also work closely with the Landscape-level modelling group to develop a shared database to facilitate the linkage of the stand-level output to the landscape-scale scenario analyses.  Lastly, Dr. Seely will be responsible for overseeing the dendrochronology field work to be conducted in the summer of 2010. Results from this work will be used to verify and improve the calibration of the climate response functions in Forecast Climate.  Contact: brad.seely @ubc .ca


Cam Brown will provide knowledge of local forest planning issues and data, and will assist with the coordination of scenario development and integration of stand and landscape level modeling in a manner that will help to answer the key questions put forward in the project.  Cam be be contacted at: cbrown @ forsite .ca

Dave Pérez is an MSc student and a member of the Sustainable Forest Management Research Group at the University of British Columbia.  He has the role of facilitating dialogue across the project, be it within the K2 core team as well as with the extended team of clients.  He is also responsible for coordinating logistics for all K2 related events and website development and administration.

David’s thesis research is directly linked with the recommendations coming out of the KamloopsFuture Forest Strategy (k1 & K2) that deal withlandscape-level alternative regeneration strategies under climate change, over the long term.  BC forest policy should facilitate coordination and flexibility that promotes the implementation of adaptive actions across the land-base to foster resilience not only ecologically but also in management.  David can be reached at: dpforestry @ gmail .com




Dr. Stewart Cohen is senior researcher with the Adaptation and Impacts Research Section of Environment Canada, and an Adjunct Professor with the Department of Forest Resources Management of the University of British Columbia.

Dr. Cohen’s research interests are in climate change impacts and adaptation, and exploring how climate change can affect sustainable development.  He has contributed to nearly 100 publications, including a series of studies on climate change and water management in the Okanagan region, as well as his work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations which was a co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

Current activities include case studies with UBC faculty and students on climate change and sustainable forest management in British Columbia, and climate change visualization with UBC’s Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP). He is a member of the advisory committee for the Columbia Basin Trust program “Communities Adapting to Climate Change” and also advises the Fraser Basin Council.

He teaches a graduate course on climate change at UBC, and his most recent publication is a textbook based on this course, co-authored by Melissa Waddell, entitled “Climate Change in the 21st Century”. It is published by McGill-Queens University Press.  Stewart can be reached at scohen @forestry .ubc .ca


Laurie Kremsater has more than 20 years of experience in research in forest management and ecology.  Projects she has been involved with cover multiple issues regarding forest and biodiversity (including Climate change, mountain pine beetle, species at risk, monitoring habitat, vertebrate and nonvertebrate species).  The last 10 years she has focused on developing indicators and directing monitoring, primarily with the forest industry and with government.  Her role in the second phase of the Kamloops Future Forest Project is to suggest scenarios and questions of interest to biodiversity concerns, recommend indicators for modelling, and help interpret results of the models with regards to likely impacts on biodiversity.


Craig Nitschke is a Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne and a Research Associate at the University of British Columbia.  His work focuses on investigating the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of ecosystems to climate variability and change and developing and assessing management strategies that may allow for the achievement of sustainable forest management under dynamic conditions.  His work involves the integration of species ecology, ecophysiology, disturbance agents and climate across multiple scales through empirical research and modelling. He has designed the TACA model which is a mechanistic species distribution model that explores the ability of species to regenerate and persist under varying climate and site conditions. Craig can be reached at: craign @ unimelb. edu .au

Michael Gerzon is a research scientist at UBC. His previous work concentrated on forest ecosystem modelling, quantification of the recovery of old-growth attributes, and long term projections of forest ecosystem recovery following variable retention logging.

In K2 project Michael is going to use the DYNA-PLAN model (developed by Anne-Hélène Mathey) for landscape simulations. Landscape-level analysis will provide an output for changes of landscape mosaic of stands due to change in forest management and climate change. In addition, using this data, DYNA-PLAN is able to optimize a forest management plan in terms of harvested volume, protected areas, and economic value. DYNA-PLAN receives part of its input from the FORECAST model to determine the growth curves of each stand.  Michael can be reached by email: mgerzon ^at^ gmail.com

Reg Davis has been working with the Forest Planning Studio (FPS) model.  He can be reached at rdavis @ forsite.ca.

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  • K2 Pages

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    • Background – K1
    • K2 Introduction
    • Kamloops TSA & Study Area
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      • 4. FPS
      • 5. DYNA-PLAN
        • – DynaPlan outputs
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      • 2. Clearwater & Barriere
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